Population Health Science and the Challenges of Prediction

In their current Annals report, Dalton and colleagues show that a neighborhood disadvantage index outperformed the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Model by a factor of 3. The editorialists discuss the article and see it as a sobering reminder of the limitations of predictive models that fail to consider base prevalence and co-occurring factors.

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