Baseline Tumor Size Is an Independent Prognostic Factor for Overall Survival in Patients With Melanoma Treated With Pembrolizumab

Purpose: To assess the association of baseline tumor size (BTS) with other baseline clinical factors and outcomes in pembrolizumab-treated patients with advanced melanoma in KEYNOTE-001 (NCT01295827). Experimental Design: BTS was quantified by adding the sum of the longest dimensions of all measurable baseline target lesions. BTS as a dichotomous and continuous variable was evaluated with other baseline factors using logistic regression for objective response rate (ORR) and Cox regression for overall survival (OS). Nominal P values with no multiplicity adjustment describe the strength of observed associations. Results: Per central review by RECIST v1.1, 583 of 655 patients had baseline measurable disease and were included in this post hoc analysis. Median BTS was 10.2 cm (range, 1-89.5). Larger median BTS was associated with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 1, elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), stage M1c disease, and liver metastases (with or without any other sites) (all P ≤ 0.001). In univariate analyses, BTS below the median was associated with higher ORR (44% vs 23%; P < 0.001) and improved OS (hazard ratio, 0.38; P < 0.001). In multivariate analyses, BTS below the median remained an independent prognostic marker of OS (P < 0.001) but not ORR. In 459 patients with available tumor programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, BTS below the median and PD-L1-positive tumors were independently associated with higher ORR and longer OS. Conclusions: BTS is associated with many other baseline clinical factors but is also independently prognostic of survival in pembrolizumab-treated patients with advanced melanoma.

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