Projected increase in obesity and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis-related liver transplantation waitlist additions in the United States

Abstract

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis is the fastest growing indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the US. We aimed to determine the temporal trend behind the rise in obesity and NASH-related additions to the LT waitlist in the US and make projections for future NASH burden on the LT waitlist. We used data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database from 2000-2014 to obtain the number of NASH-related LT waitlist additions. The obese population in the US from 2000-2014 was estimated using data from the US Census Bureau and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Based on obesity trends, we established a time lag between obesity prevalence and NASH-related waitlist additions. We used data from the US Census Bureau on population projections from 2016-2030 to forecast obesity estimates and NASH-related LT waitlist additions. From 2000-2014, the proportion of obese individuals significantly increased 44.9% and the number of NASH-related annual waitlist additions increased from 391 to 1605. Increase in obesity prevalence was strongly associated with LT waitlist additions 9 years later in derivation and validation cohorts (R²=0.9). Based on these data, annual NASH-related waitlist additions are anticipated to increase by 55.4% (1,354 to 2,104) between 2016 and 2030. There is significant regional variation in obesity rates and in the anticipated increase in NASH-related waitlist additions (p<0.01). Conclusion: We project a marked increase in demand for LT for NASH given population obesity trends. Continued public health efforts to curb obesity prevalence are needed to reduce the projected future burden of NASH. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

http://ift.tt/2vH1aYj