An ecological analysis of PM2.5 concentrations and lung cancer mortality rates in China

Objective

To explore the association between Particulate Matter (PM)_2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) and lung cancer mortality rates and to estimate the potential risk of lung cancer mortality related to exposure to high PM_2.5 concentrations.

Design

Geographically weighted regression was performed to evaluate the relation between PM_2.5 concentrations and lung cancer mortality for males, females and for both sexes combined, in 2008, based on newly available long-term data. Lung cancer fatalities from long-term exposure to PM_2.5 were calculated according to studies by Pope III et al and the WHO air quality guidelines (AQGs).

Setting

31 provinces in China.

Results

PM_2.5 was associated with the lung cancer mortality of males, females and both sexes combined, in China, although there were exceptions in several regions, for males and females. The number of lung cancer fatalities calculated by the WHO AQGs ranged from 531 036 to 532 004, whereas the number calculated by the American Cancer Society (ACS) reached 614 860 after long-term (approximately 3–4 years) exposure to PM_2.5 concentrations since 2008.

Conclusions

There is a positive correlation between PM_2.5 and lung cancer mortality rate, and the relationship between them varies across the entire country of China. The number of lung cancer fatalities estimated by ACS was closer to the actual data than those of the WHO AQGs. Therefore, the ACS estimate of increased risk of lung cancer mortality from long-term exposure to PM_2.5 might be more applicable for evaluating lung cancer fatalities in China than the WHO estimate.

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