Validation of a DICE Simulation Against a Discrete Event Simulation Implemented Entirely in Code

Abstract

Background

Modeling is an essential tool for health technology assessment, and various techniques for conceptualizing and implementing such models have been described. Recently, a new method has been proposed—the discretely integrated condition event or DICE simulation—that enables frequently employed approaches to be specified using a common, simple structure that can be entirely contained and executed within widely available spreadsheet software. To assess if a DICE simulation provides equivalent results to an existing discrete event simulation, a comparison was undertaken.

Methods

A model of osteoporosis and its management programmed entirely in Visual Basic for Applications and made public by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Decision Support Unit was downloaded and used to guide construction of its DICE version in Microsoft Excel^®. The DICE model was then run using the same inputs and settings, and the results were compared.

Results

The DICE version produced results that are nearly identical to the original ones, with differences that would not affect the decision direction of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (<1% discrepancy), despite the stochastic nature of the models.

Limitation

The main limitation of the simple DICE version is its slow execution speed.

Conclusions

DICE simulation did not alter the results and, thus, should provide a valid way to design and implement decision-analytic models without requiring specialized software or custom programming. Additional efforts need to be made to speed up execution.

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