Incidence, course and risk factors of head injury: a retrospective cohort study

Objectives

To assess the incidence of head injury and predictors of complication across the care continuum.

Design

Retrospective cohort study using data from a research network. We calculated the incidence of overall head injury in a longitudinal cohort covering 1-year interval (31 369 patient-years), and the incidence of complicated head injury in a longitudinal cohort covering 10 years interval (220 352 patient-ears). Incidence rates were calculated per 1000 patient-years with 95% CI using the Mid-P exact test. We calculated ORs to assess potential risk factors for a complicated head injury.

Setting

A practice-based research network covering a population of >30 000 patients.

Participants

All patients listed in practices within the research network during the years 2005–2014.

Main outcome measures

Incidence of (complicated) head injury and predictors for clinical complications.

Results

The incidence of overall head injury was 22.1 per 1000 person-years and the incidence of a complicated course following head injury was 0.16 per 1000 person-years. The following determinants were risk factors for a complicated course: high energy trauma, bicycle accident, traffic accident in general, use of anticoagulants, alcohol intoxication, age above 60 years and low Glasgow Coma Scale at initial presentation. A complicated course was very unlikely when the patients' first encounter with a healthcare professional was in primary care (OR 0.03, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.07).

Conclusions

Complication after head injury are rarely seen in general practice. Patients who do experience complications are often easily identifiable as requiring specialist care. A more reserved referral policy for general practice may be desirable, suggesting that current guidelines are too defensive.

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